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Prediction and review of Barcelona - Real Madrid
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It was in the air for a few weeks: as for Rafa Benitez in his time, the first Clasico of the season was fatal to Julen Lopetegui. The former coach of Spain was removed from his duties as Real Madrid coach on Tuesday, replaced by Santiago Solari. Back on the last exit of his Real Madrid, died without his ideas on the lawn of Camp Nou.From the outset, Barça is determined to take things in hand as our prediction is strong home win. Ernesto Valverde's team defends by advancing in the opposing midfield, pushing his opponent to the sides of which he has a hard time getting out (see below: the balls hit by Real Madrid in the first quarter of hour).
Opposite, the Real does not answer: his block does not try to go beyond the median line and leaves the pair Piqué-Lenglet free of any pressure. In short, the match for the possession, which Real was looking for absolutely at the beginning of the season (more than 64% during the first weeks of the championship) does not exist. Lopetegui's team takes a middle-of-the-field standoff position, pitting a narrow median block across their width to deny Barça solutions inside the game (see below). That's why in some cases we could change soccer prediction for this game to be asian handicap instead of 1X2. In return, the laterals (Alba and Sergi Roberto) are left in the corridors.
If it is not in the habits of Real, the goal is simple: as soon as the ball is recovered, it is to play fast forward to find Bale and Benzema hoping to offer situations of a - Against one to play against blaugranas defenders. If the fast transition is impossible, the team relies on its most comfortable elements under the pressure (Marcelo, Isco) to thwart the opposing pressing hoping to launch the attackers in a second time.
From the first minute, Isco Benzema launches that escapes the vigilance of Piqué but is finally reported in position of offside. A few minutes later, Bale goes deep, still launched by Isco, and serves his partner of the attack whose recovery flies above the goals of ter Stegen (8th).
But if the potential is there on the transitions, it's a different story when it comes to recover the ball. Real may succeed in cutting relations with Coutinho, Rafinha or Suarez inside the game, he can not disrupt the ball circulation of his opponent. Busquets, Rakitic and Arthur feast between the midfield and attacking opponents and make live the ball while waiting to find an opening to progress to the opposing goals.
The people of Madrid simply can not intervene in one way or another to disrupt this circulation of ball. Proof of this is its PPDA (number of passes conceded per defensive action attempted) during the first half hour: it rises to 19.5, which is not even worthy of the most "passive" teams of 5 big leagues in terms of defensive intensity.
Clearly, Barca finds himself turning the ball against a medal-block opponent who fails to steer where he wants. And besides, it is quite difficult to know if Real Madrid really has a plan to recover the ball ... other than hoping to win a duel.
The technical mastery of Barça is such in the midfield that they simply do not exist during his first minutes of play. The Madrilenians still have a time delay: their block is deformed at the mercy of opposing movements and the Blaugranas always end not find a solution to progress. Orphan of Messi used to give him balloons in the last third, Jordi Alba turns into luxury relay when it is necessary to advance towards the surface of Thibaut Courtois.
The numbers speak for him: at the break, the left-back is the second Barça player to have made the most passes behind Rakitic (36/40). Better, he is leader on the number of passes made in the last third (11/14), with almost twice as many successful passes as his partners (Suarez, Rafinha and Arthur at 6). Above all, he is involved on both goals of Barça, being author of the pass back for Coutinho (11th, see below) and the center stretched to Suarez which leads to the fault of Varane (30th).
Back to the wall at the break, Julen Lopetegui has no choice but to change something to wake up his troops. Like FC Sevilla, he decided to switch to a system with three central defenders. Touched adductors, Varane gives way to Vazquez. The latter moved into the right lane, allowing Nacho to find a central defender position alongside Casemiro and Ramos. In the middle, Kroos finds himself in the middle position furthest behind Isco and Modric.
Due to his more advanced position on the field, Vazquez naturally leaves Alba with less free field in the left lane. Beyond this particular case, it is the whole team of Madrid who plays higher on the field: when Barça leaves ter Stegen, they settle very high, creating a total individual on the whole field. On the cover, Casemiro, Ramos and Nacho have no right to the mistake against Suarez, Rafinha and Coutinho (see below on a raise of Ter Stegen).
Even if a missed recovery of the Brazilian could have allowed Barça to register a 3rd goal (49th), it is indeed his partners who enter best in this half. Compared to the first half, their PPDA drops dramatically: from 19.5 on the first half-hour of the game, it drops to 6.3 between the 46th and 75th minute. A figure this time approaching the most intense pressing teams of the 5 major leagues (Eibar: 5.90 - Betis: 5.94).
In the space of a quarter of an hour, the Madrilenians will try their luck 8 times (half of their total on the match), register a goal (Marcelo, 50th) and touch the post (Modric, 55th) . The maps below show the difference in height of the balloons recovered by Real between the two halves.
Beyond this pressing all terrain that works (for the moment), the players of Lopetegui also manage to override the pressing of the Barça using the best width and their lateral placed higher on the ground.
At the origin of the first goal, Marcelo and Benzema combine left before the ball goes to the opposite for Vazquez to throw Isco into the box. In the axis, it is besides the Spanish environment which makes the link in this new set (21 balls hit in 15 minutes), assisted by a Kroos who can finally use his long game now that his team has more often the ball.
If it brings him opportunities to return, the approach of the Real is double-edged: the least duel lost can create a gap ... This forces the whole block to fall back, giving the second half a different face than the first: the two teams are much more stretched and the possession sequences shorter compared to the confrontation "possession of Barça against the median block Madrilenian" of the first act.
Barça have a first opportunity to fold the game-time encounter on a fast first attack then placed in the Madrid camp. Rakitic launches Sergi Roberto in the back of the defense; The latter gives the head to Suarez who sees his recovery finish on the post (61). Real replicates a few minutes later: shifted by Isco, Vazquez center for Benzema who sends his head over goals of ter Stegen (68th). Real has just missed his chance.
Because the minutes that follow see the team lose their bite in front ... and make mistakes behind. But Lopetegui's gamble at the break left no room for hesitation. Less visible during this half, Alba breaks the Madrilenian pressing and offers a 3-on-3 to play the new trio of attack (Suarez, Dembélé, Sergi Roberto). The opportunity for the Uruguayan to sign his double (75th) ... which becomes tripled a few minutes later following an error by Sergio Ramos (see below, 83rd).
Entered a few minutes earlier, Vidal completed the success of his own by coming smasher in the surface a center of Dembélé (87th).
Thanks to this success, Barça took the lead of the championship with the way. If it was necessary to put a flat on his performance, one wonders what would have happened if Modric had had more success on his attempt at the 55th. It had been 10 minutes since the Real had resumed in a very risky system, which probably asked one thing Barça side: the entrance of a player capable of bringing speed and depth to punish 3-on-3 left on the cover by the Madrilenians. An element finally introduced in the 74th minute (Dembélé instead of Coutinho) and who will be at the baton on the goal of 3-1 before giving himself a decisive pass in the money-time on the goal of Vidal.
Opposite, Lopetegui will have tried his va-tout by defeating cards that he had not used since the beginning of the season. No doubt he was hoping to surprise his opponent, but he only put his players, who like to have the ball, in a very uncomfortable position for a half time. The reaction of his team after the break suggests that it did not let go as it did with Benitez, but the balance of the team was too precarious to hope to reverse the trend of 45 minutes of Thu.
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